Reference
Pollster Registry
The 21 pollsters Thin Gold tracks, with editorial tier rating, partisan lean, and house-effect estimate. Fuller rating methodology and average final-weekend error are planned.
Swipe for house effects and notes.
| Pollster | Tier | Lean | House Effect | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | Tier 1 | Neutral / not measured | — | University-run. Occasional slight variability but overall balanced. |
| Marist College | Tier 1 | Neutral / not measured | — | University-run; NPR/Marist partnership. Nonpartisan. |
| Marquette University Law School | Tier 1 | Neutral / not measured | — | University-run; long reputation for methodological rigor in WI politics. |
| Monmouth University | Tier 1 | Neutral / not measured | — | University-run; A+ rating historically. |
| NYT/Siena | Tier 1 | Neutral / not measured | — | NYT/Siena College partnership. Consistently top-rated methodology. |
| SurveyUSA | Tier 1 | Neutral / not measured | — | IVR methodology, nonpartisan media-client base. |
| UNH Survey Center | Tier 1 | Neutral / not measured | — | University of New Hampshire. Academic, nonpartisan. |
| Washington Post/Schar School | Tier 1 | Neutral / not measured | — | Academic partnership (GMU Schar School). Widely considered nonpartisan. |
| CNN/SSRS | Tier 2 | Neutral / not measured | — | SSRS runs for CNN; independent nonpartisan methodology. |
| DDHQ/Decision Desk HQ | Tier 2 | Neutral / not measured | — | Decision-desk election-call service; polling arm is newer but nonpartisan. |
| Fox News/Beacon Research | Tier 2 | Neutral / not measured | — | Fox News methodology pairs Beacon (R-leaning) with a D-leaning partner; net neutral by design. |
| Morning Consult | Tier 2 | Neutral / not measured | — | Online panel, nonpartisan media clients. |
| PPP (Public Policy Polling) | Tier 2 | Democratic-leaning | D+1.5 | Explicitly Democratic-aligned firm (PPP self-identifies as D pollster). Silver Bulletin tracks slight D house effect. |
| Quinnipiac | Tier 2 | Neutral / not measured | — | University-run; nonpartisan. |
| YouGov | Tier 2 | Neutral / not measured | — | Online panel; treated as neutral in industry aggregators. |
| InsiderAdvantage | Tier 3 | Republican-leaning | R+2.0 | Documented R-lean; low transparency on methodology. |
| McLaughlin & Associates | Tier 3 | Republican-leaning | R+3.5 | Explicitly Republican polling firm. Client list is almost entirely R candidates/orgs. |
| Patriot Polling | Tier 3 | Republican-leaning | R+2.0 | Newer R-aligned firm; name signals orientation. |
| Quantus Insights | Tier 3 | Republican-leaning | R+2.0 | Conservative-aligned; flagged for herding patterns. |
| Rasmussen Reports | Tier 3 | Republican-leaning | R+2.5 | Long-documented Republican house effect. IVR methodology, conservative media clients. |
| Trafalgar Group | Tier 3 | Republican-leaning | R+2.0 | Republican-aligned; consistent R house effect in 2020/2022/2024 cycles. |
Tier 1 = highest reliability (live-caller, large sample, established track record). Tier 3 = lowest (online panel, limited track record; excluded from averaging). House effect is points D-leaning (positive) or R-leaning (negative) relative to the polling average.