New York 11th District

New York's 11th congressional district, covering Staten Island and a slice of southern Brooklyn, has been Republican territory in federal races for most of the past decade, and Cook Political Report rated the seat Solid R as of August 25, 2026. The district's baseline partisan lean runs roughly 23 points to the right of the national median, a margin that places it among the more reliably red seats New York sends to Congress despite being entirely within the nation's largest city. The incumbent-held seat sits in a borough where property taxes, crime policy, and opposition to congestion pricing have driven a durable rightward shift among working-class and outer-borough voters who feel distant from Manhattan's policy priorities. Those same voters have shown skepticism toward both coastal finance's cultural agenda and toward federal regulatory frameworks they see as written for larger employers. That cross-ideological resentment is not unique to Staten Island, but it is unusually concentrated here, and it has made the 11th one of the few New York City seats where a Republican can win without substantial donor-class infrastructure. The Democratic primary process was still sorting out its nominee as of the most recent available data, which limits direct candidate comparison. With polling last recorded in June 2026 and the district's structural lean as wide as it is, the contest is unlikely to function as a referendum on concentrated economic power in the way a competitive race might. What the 11th does register, reliably, is whether outer-borough working-class voters who shifted right during the 2020 and 2022 cycles remain anchored there, or whether national economic conditions in 2026 introduce any softening at the margins.