Mar 23: Document update
Generic ballotD+5.0 to D+5.6ApprovalNet -15.3 (Mar 19)
- Iran war Day 24: Trump postponed strikes on Iranian power plants for five days, claiming "productive conversations" and identifying Witkoff and Kushner as envoys. Iran denied any negotiations. Despite the postponement, Israel launched "unprecedented" strikes on Tehran while Iran fired cluster warhead missiles at the Tel Aviv area. Iran's Defence Council threatened to mine the entire Gulf.
- Oil posted its biggest single-day drop since March 10: Brent settled at $99.94 (-10.92%), the first close below $100 since March 11, after opening above $114. WTI settled at $88.13. Gas hit $3.956 AAA, the 23rd straight daily increase, up $1.02 in one month - a bigger gain than after Katrina or Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
- Markets rallied but pared gains into the close: Dow +1.38% to 46,208, S&P 500 +1.15% to 6,581, Nasdaq +1.38%. All three remain below their 200-day moving averages. Gold fell more than 6%.
- Three national polls confirm approval erosion broadening: Emerson T1 LV (42%/51%, D+7 generic, 47% oppose Iran war, "America First" reversed to net -11 from net +7 a year ago), Echelon A-rated (41%/57%, D+5 generic, foreign policy approval collapsed from -13 to -21), JL Partners (42%, series low, 54% would blame Trump for higher gas prices).
- Mullin confirmed as DHS Secretary 54-45 (Fetterman and Heinrich crossed party lines; Rand Paul the sole Republican no). Creates Oklahoma Senate vacancy; Gov. Stitt appointing energy executive Alan Armstrong. Kevin Hern running for the full term.
- DHS shutdown Day 37: 400+ TSA officers have quit. Trump rejected a proposal to fund all DHS except ICE, instead demanding passage of the SAVE America Act. Thune called the demand "not realistic." Polymarket: 65% probability shutdown extends past March 31.
- Iran death toll revised upward: Iran Health Ministry now reports 1,500+ killed (up from 1,200 Red Crescent figure). Lebanon 1,039 killed. Iraq 60 killed. West Bank settler violence averaging 10 attacks per day.