Mar 30: Iran war
ChangelogDashboard
This Week's Headlines
- Trump threatens to obliterate Iran's energy infrastructure. On Truth Social Monday, Trump warned that if a deal is not reached and the Strait of Hormuz reopened, the US "will conclude our lovely 'stay' in Iran by blowing up and completely obliterating all of their Electric Generating Plants, Oil Wells and Kharg Island (and possibly all desalinization plants!)." In a Financial Times interview, he said he wants to "take the oil in Iran" and that US forces may need to remain at Kharg Island for an extended period. Treasury Secretary Bessent said the US will "retake control" of Hormuz through escorts or a multinational force. The White House described troops arriving in theater as providing "maximum optionality."
- Brent crude posts largest monthly gain in contract history. Oil closed at $112.78 per barrel Monday, capping a 55% surge in March that surpassed the previous record of 46% set during the 1990 Gulf War. WTI settled at $102.88 (+3.25%). The national gas average reached $3.990, with AAA and GasBuddy projecting $4 within days. Americans have spent roughly $8 billion more on gasoline in the past month. Fed Chair Powell, speaking at Harvard, said interest rates are "in a good place" and that raising rates would not help with gas prices but could cause economic damage.
- DHS shutdown Day 45. TSA officers began receiving back pay Monday under Trump's emergency executive order from Friday, but 2,800+ agents (10.27% nationwide) called out Saturday, with five airports reporting callout rates above 30%. ICE agents remain deployed at airports per border czar Homan. The White House called on Congress to return from Easter recess to pass permanent funding. The shutdown does not cover CISA, FEMA, or Coast Guard employees.
- Iran war Day 31. US-Israeli overnight strikes caused a blackout in Tehran targeting power infrastructure (since restored). Israeli strikes continued across Iran including Karaj, Shiraz, Qom, Abadan, and Tabriz. Iran targeted Israel's Haifa military aerospace complex and Ben Gurion airport fuel storage. Lebanon death toll reached 1,247 (up from 1,189 on Day 29), including three Indonesian UN peacekeepers killed since the weekend. Iranian general Zakariaei died from wounds sustained March 28. Kuwait reported 10 soldiers wounded in a missile attack on a military base.
Dashboard Snapshot
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Generic Ballot (Silver Bulletin avg.) | D+5.1 |
| Generic Ballot (latest polls) | D+6 (SIN/Verasight RV) / D+7 (Emerson T1 LV) |
| Trump Approval (Silver Bulletin avg.) | Net -16.7 |
| Trump Approval (range, 10+ firms) | 36-42% approve / 51-62% disapprove |
| Trump Economy Approval | 25% cost of living, 29% economy (Reuters/Ipsos) |
| Iran War Approval | 61% disapprove (Pew, 3,524 adults, MOE 1.8) |
| Fed Funds Rate (FOMC Mar 18) | 3.50-3.75% (hold) |
| Q4 2025 GDP (BEA 2nd est.) | 0.7% annualized (revised from 1.4%) |
| Consumer Sentiment (UMich final Mar) | 53.3 (revised from 55.5 prelim) |
| Gas Prices (AAA avg.) | $3.990/gal (Mar 30) |
| Oil (Brent crude) | Closed $112.78 Mon (+0.19%); WTI $102.88 (+3.25%) |
| US Deaths (Iran war) | 13 KIA + 2 non-combat; 315+ wounded |
| Goldman Sachs Recession Prob. | 30% (up from 25%, Mar 25) |
| Cook Toss-Up Senate Races | 4 (ME, NC, GA, MI) |
| Special Election Dem Overperformance | D+5.6 pts avg (96+ races); Dems flipped 29 seats (R flips: 0) |
| DHS Partial Shutdown | Day 45 (since Feb 14) - longest in US history |
What Changed
- Iran war
- Day 31: Trump threatened to destroy Iran's energy infrastructure if Hormuz not reopened. Tehran blackout from overnight strikes. Lebanon 1,247 dead. Kuwait base attack wounded 10 soldiers.
- Dashboard
- Gas $3.990 AAA (was $3.981). Oil Brent closed $112.78, 55% monthly gain (record). DHS Day 45. Powell: rates 'good place.' Markets: S&P 6,343.72, Dow 45,216.