Mar 31: Dashboard
Generic ballotD+5.5up 0.40000000000000036ApprovalNet -17.4 (39.7% approve)
- Trump approval falls below 40% for first time in second term. Silver Bulletin average hit 39.7% approve, net -17.4, the steepest decline in weeks. UMass Amherst recorded 33% approve. Nate Silver described "profound problems" including base erosion among men (-20 pts since April 2025) and independents (-13 pts). 36 House Republicans have now announced retirement, a record at this stage.
- WSJ: Trump willing to end Iran war without Hormuz reopening. The Wall Street Journal reported late Monday that Trump told aides he would consider ending operations even if the Strait remains closed, as forcing Tehran to reopen it could extend the conflict. Oil fell on the report: Brent dropped from Monday's $112.78 close to the $108-111 range Tuesday. The administration has also weighed ground forces to seize Kharg Island.
- Generic ballot jumps to D+5.5. Silver Bulletin average rose from D+5.1 on a wave of polls showing D+8 to D+11 (Quinnipiac, Survey 160, Global Strategy Group, Emerson), though polls from Ipsos, YouGov, and Morning Consult remain in the D+2 to D+4 range.
- Cook shifts two more House races toward Democrats. CA-48 (Issa) and CA-13 (Gray) both moved from Toss Up to Lean D on March 27. TX-23 moved from Solid R to Likely R. Two California seats moved from Likely D to Solid D.
- DHS shutdown is now the longest in US history. Day 46. TSA back pay has begun arriving under Trump's emergency memorandum, but 510 officers have quit and Congress remains at an impasse with both chambers in Easter recess.
What changed on the site today
- Dashboard: Silver Bulletin generic ballot rose to D+5.5. Trump approval fell to net -17.4 (39.7%), first time below 40%. UMass poll: 33% approve. Cook moved CA-48 and CA-13 to Lean D. US casualties 15 KIA. DHS Day 46. 8 new citations (172-179).
- Iran war: Day 32: WSJ reports Trump willing to end war without Hormuz reopening. Oil fell on the report. 36 House GOP retirements, record at this stage.