Same inequality, new century. We're keeping score.

Apr 10: U.S.-Iran Ceasefire Holds

Generic ballotD+5.4unchangedApprovalNet -14.6Unemployment4.3%unchangedS&P 5006,824.66up 41.849999999999454
  • Two polls from MPRC via RealClearPolling dated April 7-10, 2026. General election: Collins 45, Mills 42 (Collins +3). Separate primary/general matchup: Platner 48, Collins 39 (Platner +9). Track B fetch for ME_senate.general returned page_content_empty; Track A values used.
  • One poll from Carolina Journal/Harper dated April 2, 2026: Cooper 49, Whatley 41 (Cooper +8). Track B fetch for NC_senate returned page_content_empty; Track A value used.
  • No general election polling found for Cornyn vs. Democratic challenger. Republican primary polling available: Paxton 42, Cornyn 30, Hunt 14 (Chism/Blueprint, Paxton +12); Cornyn 41, Paxton 35, Hunt 15 (UT Tyler, Cornyn +6). Democratic primary: Crockett 55, Talarico 37, Hassan 4 (UT Tyler, Crockett +18). No date provided in Track A for these polls beyond the April 10 sweep.
  • Polling shows Wahls 56, Turek 38, Other 6 (Bedrock Polling, March 26, 2026, Wahls +18). Ernst not appearing in available April 10 data; race may involve different candidates than originally tracked. The RealClearPolling page referenced a Hinson vs. Turek matchup as well.
  • Emerson poll dated April 7, 2026: Moody 47, Nixon 36 (Moody +11). No special election date confirmed in search results beyond reference to this matchup.
  • GA-14 special election result: Republican Clay Fuller 56.1%, Democrat Shawn Harris 43.9% (Republican hold), April 7, 2026. NJ-11 special election scheduled for April 16, 2026; no result yet as of run date.
  • Two developments from April 3, 2026: (1) White House memorandum directing use of existing funds for back pay to 35,000 DHS employees during a two-month shutdown (49th day), ensuring post-funding restoration continuity. (2) Federal court struck down Trump policy requiring 7 days notice for congressional visits to ICE detention facilities, restoring unannounced oversight access.
  • As of April 9-10, 2026, a two-week ceasefire is in effect following 38 days of active U.S.-Iran conflict. Trump administration officials claim U.S. forces destroyed Iranian air and naval capabilities. Iran agreed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz as part of ceasefire terms, though Trump is reported to be threatening Tehran over shipping fees in the Strait. A diplomatic dispute has emerged: Iran's Foreign Minister Araghchi says the ceasefire includes ending the Lebanon war; Trump and Netanyahu dispute this. Vice President Vance is scheduled to lead U.S. nuclear peace negotiations in Islamabad beginning approximately April 12, 2026. Israel's Netanyahu agreed to direct talks with the Lebanese government. No official U.S. casualty figures (KIA/wounded) were found in either track. Brent crude data is lagged to April 2 and does not capture post-ceasefire price movement.
  • Six executive actions identified from April 2-8, 2026: (1) EO on college sports prohibiting fraudulent NIL schemes and federal funds for pay-for-play, April 3. (2) EO 'Liberating the Department of Homeland Security From the Democrat-Caused Shutdown,' April 3. (3) Presidential Memorandum adjusting imports of pharmaceuticals and pharmaceutical ingredients, April 3. (4) Presidential Memorandum 'Urgent National Action to Save College Sports,' April 8. (5) Proclamation strengthening tariff actions on aluminum, steel, and copper imports, April 2. (6) Proclamation 'Ensuring Citizenship Verification and Integrity in Federal Elections,' April 2.
What changed on the site today
  • Front matter
  • Senate races
  • State of play
  • Iran war
  • senate_maine: Two polls from MPRC via RealClearPolling dated April 7-10, 2026. General election: Collins 45, Mills 42 (Collins +3). Separate primary/general matchup: Platner 48, Collins 39 (Platner +9). Track B fetch for ME_senate.general returned page_content_empty; Track A values used.
  • senate_north_carolina: One poll from Carolina Journal/Harper dated April 2, 2026: Cooper 49, Whatley 41 (Cooper +8). Track B fetch for NC_senate returned page_content_empty; Track A value used.
  • senate_texas: No general election polling found for Cornyn vs. Democratic challenger. Republican primary polling available: Paxton 42, Cornyn 30, Hunt 14 (Chism/Blueprint, Paxton +12); Cornyn 41, Paxton 35, Hunt 15 (UT Tyler, Cornyn +6). Democratic primary: Crockett 55, Talarico 37, Hassan 4 (UT Tyler, Crockett +18). No date provided in Track A for these polls beyond the April 10 sweep.
  • senate_iowa: Polling shows Wahls 56, Turek 38, Other 6 (Bedrock Polling, March 26, 2026, Wahls +18). Ernst not appearing in available April 10 data; race may involve different candidates than originally tracked. The RealClearPolling page referenced a Hinson vs. Turek matchup as well.
  • senate_florida_special: Emerson poll dated April 7, 2026: Moody 47, Nixon 36 (Moody +11). No special election date confirmed in search results beyond reference to this matchup.
  • house_race_events: GA-14 special election result: Republican Clay Fuller 56.1%, Democrat Shawn Harris 43.9% (Republican hold), April 7, 2026. NJ-11 special election scheduled for April 16, 2026; no result yet as of run date.
  • dhs_immigration: Two developments from April 3, 2026: (1) White House memorandum directing use of existing funds for back pay to 35,000 DHS employees during a two-month shutdown (49th day), ensuring post-funding restoration continuity. (2) Federal court struck down Trump policy requiring 7 days notice for congressional visits to ICE detention facilities, restoring unannounced oversight access.
  • iran_war_status: As of April 9-10, 2026, a two-week ceasefire is in effect following 38 days of active U.S.-Iran conflict. Trump administration officials claim U.S. forces destroyed Iranian air and naval capabilities. Iran agreed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz as part of ceasefire terms, though Trump is reported to be threatening Tehran over shipping fees in the Strait. A diplomatic dispute has emerged: Iran's Foreign Minister Araghchi says the ceasefire includes ending the Lebanon war; Trump and Netanyahu dispute this. Vice President Vance is scheduled to lead U.S. nuclear peace negotiations in Islamabad beginning approximately April 12, 2026. Israel's Netanyahu agreed to direct talks with the Lebanese government. No official U.S. casualty figures (KIA/wounded) were found in either track. Brent crude data is lagged to April 2 and does not capture post-ceasefire price movement.
  • executive_actions: Six executive actions identified from April 2-8, 2026: (1) EO on college sports prohibiting fraudulent NIL schemes and federal funds for pay-for-play, April 3. (2) EO 'Liberating the Department of Homeland Security From the Democrat-Caused Shutdown,' April 3. (3) Presidential Memorandum adjusting imports of pharmaceuticals and pharmaceutical ingredients, April 3. (4) Presidential Memorandum 'Urgent National Action to Save College Sports,' April 8. (5) Proclamation strengthening tariff actions on aluminum, steel, and copper imports, April 2. (6) Proclamation 'Ensuring Citizenship Verification and Integrity in Federal Elections,' April 2.