Apr 20: Cook shifts four Senate seats toward Democrats
Approval-16.6 (Silver Bulletin, Apr 18)
- Cook moved NC and GA to Lean D, OH to Toss-up, NE to Likely R on Apr 13 (Cook Political Report)
- NJ-11 special Apr 16: Mejia led by roughly 20 points in initial returns, twelve past the district's 2024 Harris+8 lean (Daily Kos Elections)
- Silver Bulletin Apr 18: Trump net approval -16.6, a second-term low; Iran war net approval -15.3; generic ballot D+5.6 on the Apr 19 average
- Economist/YouGov Apr 3-6 (1,750 adult citizens): 22 percent of 2024 Trump voters oppose the war with Iran
- AAA gas $4.048/gal on Apr 19, above $4 since the week of Apr 2; Brent $123.28/bbl on Apr 13 (EIA via FRED)
- DHS shutdown Day 65 since Feb 14; TSA has lost nearly 500 officers per Acting Administrator Ha Nguyen McNeill's late-March testimony
What changed on the site today
- Front matter
- Senate races
- House races
- Iran war
- Electoral: Cook moved NC and GA to Lean D, OH to Toss-up, NE to Likely R on Apr 13; NJ-11 special Apr 16 went Mejia +20, twelve past the district's 2024 Harris+8 lean.
- Dashboard: Silver Bulletin Trump net -16.6 on Apr 18; generic ballot D+5.6; UMich sentiment 47.6 (record low); S&P 500 closed at 7,041.28 on Apr 16, the first close above 7,000.
- Iran war: Day 51; 15 U.S. killed, 538 U.S. wounded; 22 percent of 2024 Trump voters oppose the war per Economist/YouGov Apr 3-6.
- Structural: DHS shutdown Day 65 since Feb 14; TSA has lost nearly 500 officers; Hegseth has fired more than a dozen senior officers since January 2025 (CBS News).