Apr 20: Cook shifts four Senate seats toward Democrats
01_front_matter04_senate_races05_house_racesiran_war
This Week's Headlines
["Cook moved NC and GA to Lean D, OH to Toss-up, NE to Likely R on Apr 13 (Cook Political Report)", "NJ-11 special Apr 16: Mejia led by roughly 20 points in initial returns, twelve past the district's 2024 Harris+8 lean (Daily Kos Elections)", "Silver Bulletin Apr 18: Trump net approval -16.6, a second-term low; Iran war net approval -15.3; generic ballot D+5.6 on the Apr 19 average", "Economist/YouGov Apr 3-6 (1,750 adult citizens): 22 percent of 2024 Trump voters oppose the war with Iran", "AAA gas $4.048/gal on Apr 19, above $4 since the week of Apr 2; Brent $123.28/bbl on Apr 13 (EIA via FRED)", "DHS shutdown Day 65 since Feb 14; TSA has lost nearly 500 officers per Acting Administrator Ha Nguyen McNeill's late-March testimony"]
Dashboard Snapshot
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| trump_net_approval | -16.6 (Silver Bulletin, Apr 18) |
| generic_ballot | D+5.6 (Silver Bulletin, Apr 19) |
| iran_war_net_approval | -15.3 (Silver Bulletin, Apr 18) |
| umich_consumer_sentiment | 47.6 (Apr 11 preliminary) |
| aaa_gas | $4.048/gal (Apr 19) |
| brent_spot | $123.28/bbl (Apr 13, EIA via FRED) |
| sp500_close | 7,041.28 (Apr 16) |
| 10y_treasury | 4.313% (Apr 16) |
| iran_war_day | 51 |
| iran_war_us_wounded | 538 |
| dhs_shutdown_day | 65 |
| tariff_effective_rate | 11.1% (Apr 2, Yale Budget Lab) |
What Changed
- Electoral
- Cook moved NC and GA to Lean D, OH to Toss-up, NE to Likely R on Apr 13; NJ-11 special Apr 16 went Mejia +20, twelve past the district's 2024 Harris+8 lean.
- Dashboard
- Silver Bulletin Trump net -16.6 on Apr 18; generic ballot D+5.6; UMich sentiment 47.6 (record low); S&P 500 closed at 7,041.28 on Apr 16, the first close above 7,000.
- Iran war
- Day 51; 15 U.S. killed, 538 U.S. wounded; 22 percent of 2024 Trump voters oppose the war per Economist/YouGov Apr 3-6.
- Structural
- DHS shutdown Day 65 since Feb 14; TSA has lost nearly 500 officers; Hegseth has fired more than a dozen senior officers since January 2025 (CBS News).