Apr 20: Cook shifts four Senate seats toward Democrats

Approval-16.6 (Silver Bulletin, Apr 18)

  • Cook moved NC and GA to Lean D, OH to Toss-up, NE to Likely R on Apr 13 (Cook Political Report)
  • NJ-11 special Apr 16: Mejia led by roughly 20 points in initial returns, twelve past the district's 2024 Harris+8 lean (Daily Kos Elections)
  • Silver Bulletin Apr 18: Trump net approval -16.6, a second-term low; Iran war net approval -15.3; generic ballot D+5.6 on the Apr 19 average
  • Economist/YouGov Apr 3-6 (1,750 adult citizens): 22 percent of 2024 Trump voters oppose the war with Iran
  • AAA gas $4.048/gal on Apr 19, above $4 since the week of Apr 2; Brent $123.28/bbl on Apr 13 (EIA via FRED)
  • DHS shutdown Day 65 since Feb 14; TSA has lost nearly 500 officers per Acting Administrator Ha Nguyen McNeill's late-March testimony
What changed on the site today
  • Front matter
  • Senate races
  • House races
  • Iran war
  • Electoral: Cook moved NC and GA to Lean D, OH to Toss-up, NE to Likely R on Apr 13; NJ-11 special Apr 16 went Mejia +20, twelve past the district's 2024 Harris+8 lean.
  • Dashboard: Silver Bulletin Trump net -16.6 on Apr 18; generic ballot D+5.6; UMich sentiment 47.6 (record low); S&P 500 closed at 7,041.28 on Apr 16, the first close above 7,000.
  • Iran war: Day 51; 15 U.S. killed, 538 U.S. wounded; 22 percent of 2024 Trump voters oppose the war per Economist/YouGov Apr 3-6.
  • Structural: DHS shutdown Day 65 since Feb 14; TSA has lost nearly 500 officers; Hegseth has fired more than a dozen senior officers since January 2025 (CBS News).